NFL Betting Systems - 46 - Pass Defense Ratings PDE .
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NFL Betting Systems: #46 - Pass Defense Ratings (PDE)
Summary
When asked about the most crucial NFL statistic for betting against the point spread, my answer is clear: Pass Defense Ratings (PDE). While traditionalists might prioritize the rushing game, pass defense is a key indicator of future outcomes. In this article, we'll explore how PDE shapes betting strategies, especially for the average bettor.Understanding PDE
Pass Defense Ratings might surprise those who believe the NFL revolves around rushing. Yet, how well a team defends against the pass can predict future success and influence betting decisions.To assess a team's Pass Defense, I measure Yards-per-Play averages and compare them to the Pass Offenses faced throughout the season.
Example:
Before the last week of the 2006 season, Chicago ranked second with a PDE of +0.75. This was calculated by subtracting Chicago's defensive Yards-per-Pass play average (4.77) from their opponents’ offensive average (5.52), resulting in a +0.75 rating. A positive score indicates above-average performance.Why PDE Matters
PDE is especially powerful when a team has a rating over +0.50 and comes off a game where they stifled their opponent's rushing attack.Public bettors favor teams with strong pass defenses, but since 1994, teams with a PDE rating above +0.50 have a poor 706-789 record against the spread (47.2%).
System Details:
1. PDE rating > +0.50.2. Previous game: Opponent rushed for less than 75 yards.
3. Previous game: Opponent ran fewer than 60 plays.
When these conditions are met, the betting system's record is 73-157 ATS (31.7%) since 1994, revealing a profitable strategy by betting against these teams.
Notable Teams:
Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay frequently fall into this category, followed closely by Denver and Baltimore. Since 1994, 93.8% of NFL teams have participated in this system.Additional Factors
Several secondary conditions refine this system:- Exclude teams that lost by a late field goal in their last meeting.
- Games with an Over/Under of less than 44.
- Opponent should not come off a Straight-Up Dog win.
System Statistics:
- Average Spread Margin (ASM): -5.5- Home Advantage: 42.7%
- Underdog Success: 33.1%
- Participation Rate (TDIS%): 93.8%
- Winning Teams (WT%): 83.4%
- Average Point Spread (SPR): -2.54
Top Teams in the System:
- Pittsburgh (17 times)- Tampa Bay (14 times)
- Denver (13 times)
- Baltimore (9 times)
Historical Performance:
- Combined record since '94: 28-118 ATS- 2006 Season: 4-13 ATS
- 2005 Season: 0-9 ATS
- 2004 Season: 5-11 ATS
Recent Results:
- 2006 Wk19: IND 15, BAL 6 (Pick: BAL -4) - Loss- 2006 Wk16: NE 24, JAC 21 (Pick: JAC -3) - Loss
- 2005 Wk16: BAL 31, PIT 7 (Pick: BAL +3.5) - Win
In conclusion, understanding Pass Defense Ratings isn't just insightful?"it's essential for mastering NFL betting strategies. By recognizing teams that seem defensively strong, bettors can discover valuable opportunities and improve their betting outcomes.
You can find the original non-AI version of this article here: NFL Betting Systems - 46 - Pass Defense Ratings PDE ..
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