Improve Your Soccer Betting Using The Superiority Method
Below is a MRR and PLR article in category Recreation Sports -> subcategory Tennis.
Enhance Your Soccer Betting with the Superiority Method
Summary
"Enhance Your Soccer Betting" is a series offering insights into popular statistical techniques to help soccer bettors make informed decisions. Each method has unique strengths and weaknesses, and while using them individually can increase your chances of success, combining them is invaluable in facing off against bookmakers. Every article in the series delves deeply into a specific method, providing you with the tools to create your forecasts. We'll also point you to websites that leverage these techniques for weekly soccer betting predictions.
Understanding the Superiority Method
In this installment, we're discussing the Superiority Method, a well-established approach based on goal differences between teams over recent games. This method helps bettors make better decisions by analyzing past performances.
Steps to Apply the Superiority Method
1. Calculate Goal Difference:
- Option A: Use only the last N home games for the home team and the last N away games for the away team.
- Option B: Consider all games for both teams over the last N matches.
2. Count Goal Differences for Each Team:
Create a table listing occurrences of different goal differences for both home and away teams. Use the following indices:
```
INDEX GOAL DIFF
1..........>-5
2..........-5
3..........-4
4..........-3
5..........-2
6..........-1
7..........0
8..........1
9..........2
10........3
11........4
12........5
13........>5
```
Example: Arsenal vs. West Ham
- Arsenal: 2, -1, 0, 0, 3, -2, 1, 1, 1, 5, 1, 0, 0, -2
- West Ham: 0, 0, -2, -3, -1, 3, 1, -1, -1, 2, 1, 3, 0, 1
Filling the table with these differences:
```
INDEX GOAL DIFF ARSENAL WEST HAM
1..........>-5.......0..........0
2..........-5.........0..........0
3..........-4.........0..........0
4..........-3.........0..........1
5..........-2.........2..........1
6..........-1.........1..........3
7..........0..........4..........3
8..........1..........4..........3
9..........2..........1..........1
10........3..........1..........2
11........4..........0..........0
12........5..........1..........0
13........>5........0..........0
```
3. Combine Data:
Add the home team's counts to the corresponding away team counts:
```
INDEX GOAL DIFF COMBINED
1..........>-5.........0
2..........-5...........0
3..........-4...........0
4..........-3...........2
5..........-2...........3
6..........-1...........4
7..........0............7
8..........1............7
9..........2............2
10........3............2
11........4............0
12........5............1
13........>5..........0
```
4. Determine Outcome:
- A draw corresponds to index 7.
- Indexes 1-6 indicate an away win.
- Indexes 8-13 suggest a home win.
Results:
- AWAY WIN: 9 occurrences
- DRAW: 7 occurrences
- HOME WIN: 12 occurrences
Total = 28
- Away win probability: 32%
- Draw probability: 25%
- Home win probability: 43%
Explore Your Own Superiority Method
Feel free to modify the values and experiment to find optimal settings. If you have the technical skills, you can build a spreadsheet or software to apply the Superiority Method. Alternatively, download free software such as Footyforecast 2.0 from 1X2Monster, along with weekly updates.
Discover Our Full Series
- Enhance Your Soccer Betting with the Rateform Method
- Enhance Your Soccer Betting with the Footyforecast Method
- Enhance Your Soccer Betting with the Win Draw Loss Method
- Enhance Your Soccer Betting with the Simple Sequence Method
- Enhance Your Soccer Betting with the Score Prediction Method
- Enhance Your Soccer Betting with the Superiority Method
You can find the original non-AI version of this article here: Improve Your Soccer Betting Using The Superiority Method.
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