How To Profit From NFL Line Moves.
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How to Profit from NFL Line Moves
For centuries, cultures worldwide have engaged in various forms of betting. Yet, the concept of the point spread, or "betting line," is a fairly recent innovation, only being widely used for about 70 years. Its influence, however, has been profound, especially in American football. As noted by a bookie in a 1951 sports journal, the spread has been described as "the greatest discovery since the zipper."
The Evolution of the Point Spread
The point spread's exact origins are debated. Some claim it began in the 1920s, while others suggest the 1930s in New York. However, it truly gained traction after World War II, becoming the preferred method for wagering on football and basketball. Initially set by a Minneapolis consulting firm led by Leo Hirschfield, spreads are now determined by a consensus of sportsbook managers from Las Vegas casinos and offshore establishments. For research, the Don Best Sports Information Service, which aggregates data from 25 sportsbooks, is invaluable.
Understanding NFL Line Movements
The initial point spread is set to balance wagers on both teams. However, bookmakers may misjudge public opinion, leading to fluctuations of 2-3 points. Sometimes, they intentionally skew lines to trap bettors, an approach that favors the bookmaker when the public heavily backs one side.
Despite the wealth of information available online, many bettors still qualify as "squares," consistently backing well-known favorites. This tendency is exploited by sportsbooks. Historically, betting on favorites has only been profitable in two out of the past 14 years, with favorites failing to cover at a rate of 48.3% since 1994.
Strategies for Profiting from Line Moves
Contrarian betting can be effective in the NFL. By using services that track betting trends, savvy bettors can capitalize on public missteps. However, this data can be costly, ranging from $100 to $600 monthly.
An alternative is to use online resources to track live NFL lines. Adjustments in point spreads can signal where money is flowing. For example, a decrease often indicates more betting on the underdog, while an increase suggests strong support for the favorite. Analyzing the timing and magnitude of these moves has led to the development of eight effective betting strategies.
Strategies for Betting on Favorites
1. Late Increase on Favorite:
- A favorite's spread increasing within the final hour before game time is a strong indicator.
- Record since 2001: 100-83 ATS.
2. Rising Spread from Midweek:
- Favorites whose spread increases by at least one point from Wednesday to game day can be profitable.
- Record since 2001: 107-85 ATS.
3. Small Movement on Field Goal Spreads:
- When spreads of exactly 3 points increase to at least 3.5, the favorite is a good bet.
- Record since 2001: 26-20 ATS.
4. Touchdown Spreads:
- If a 7-point spread increases to 7.5, the favorite has historically performed well.
- Record since 2001: 15-8 ATS.
Strategies for Betting on Underdogs
1. Late Decrease on Underdog:
- A reduction in the underdog spread close to game time is often favorable.
- Record since 2001: 109-80 ATS.
2. Underdogs with a Slight Worsening:
- Underdogs initially receiving 7 or 7.5 points but growing by game time are lucrative.
- Record since 2001: 25-14 ATS.
3. Early Underdogs Turning Favorites:
- Underdogs whose spread decreases by 2.5 points by game time still offer value.
- Record since 2001: 20-13 ATS.
4. Large Underdogs Becoming Smaller:
- Big underdogs with a shrinking spread tend to be strong bets.
- Record since 2001: 13-9 ATS.
The Importance of Late Line Moves
Late changes in betting lines offer a straightforward and often free method to capitalize on opportunities each season. These movements might be driven by insider big bets or shifts due to injuries and weather. Regardless, no savvy bettor should overlook how these changes can impact their strategy.
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