How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method
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Enhance Your Soccer Bets with the Footyforecast Method
Introduction
Enhance Your Soccer Bets is a series of guides that introduce powerful statistical techniques to help you make more informed decisions when placing soccer bets. Each technique has its pros and cons, and while using them individually can boost your chances of winning, combining them significantly enhances your strategy against bookmakers. In each guide, we delve into the specifics of a method, providing you with the knowledge to create forecasts. We'll also point you to resources where these techniques are applied in weekly forecasts.
The Footyforecast Method
In this article, we focus on the Footyforecast method, designed originally for English Football Pools to filter out matches unlikely to end in draws. This process narrows your selection to maximize your potential winnings. Introduced in 1999 on the original Footyforecast website, this method resembles the Simple Sequence method, also covered in our series.
Basic Rules
For both teams in a match, calculate the following:
1. Total points earned over the last N games.
2. Maximum possible points for those games.
3. Divide the total points by the maximum points and multiply by 100.
4. Calculate the forecast value.
Steps:
- HOMEPOINTS = Points for home team from last N games.
- AWAYPOINTS = Points for away team from last N games.
- HOMEVAL = (HOMEPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN N)) 100
- AWAYVAL = (AWAYPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN N)) 100
- FORECAST = (HOMEVAL + (100 - AWAYVAL)) / 2
Interpreting Results
- A forecast value of 50 predicts a draw.
- Values 50 to 100 indicate an increasing likelihood of a home win as they approach 100.
- Values 50 to 0 suggest an increasing chance of an away win as they approach 0.
Consider variables like the number of matches included in your calculations and whether to use only home games for the home team and away games for the away team. Experimenting with these can fine-tune your results.
By mapping actual draw results against the forecast, you can set thresholds for likely draws, such as values of 40 or less indicating away wins and 60 or more suggesting home wins. Matches between these thresholds might end in draws.
Practical Example
Consider recent matches:
- West Ham: 3, 1, 1, 0 points
- Leeds Utd: 1, 3, 0, 3 points
Using only home games for the home team and away for the away team:
- FFPHome = ((3 + 1 + 1 + 0) / 12) * 100 = 42
- FFPAway = ((1 + 3 + 0 + 3) / 12) * 100 = 59
- FFPForecast = (42 + (100 - 59)) / 2 = 42
With thresholds set at 40 and 60, this forecast suggests a draw, with the possibility of an away win (X2 prediction).
Take Action
Experiment with different values and thresholds. Consider including all home and away games in your calculations. You can also plot actual results against the Footyforecast predictions to refine your approach.
If you have the technical skills, create a spreadsheet for data analysis or develop software to apply the Footyforecast method. For an easier option, visit 1X2Monster to download the free Footyforecast 2.0 software, which includes free weekly database updates.
Explore More
This series includes guides on:
- The Rateform Method
- The Footyforecast Method
- The Win Draw Loss Method
- The Simple Sequence Method
- The Score Prediction Method
- The Superiority Method
Explore these methods to further refine your soccer betting strategies and stay ahead of the game.
You can find the original non-AI version of this article here: How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method.
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