Three-Year-Olds Most Likely to Claim the Derby
Below is a MRR and PLR article in category Recreation Sports -> subcategory Other.
Three-Year-Olds Primed to Win the Derby
Summary:
Six top contenders in the Kentucky Derby began their careers in claiming races and now rank among the top 20 in graded stakes earnings. Will one of them seize victory in the Run for the Roses?
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Six horses, each having claimed victories in earlier races, are now poised for greatness in the Kentucky Derby, with no rank lower than 16th in graded stakes earnings. Could they claim the 132nd Run for the Roses? Absolutely!
Take Lawyer Ron, for example. With John McKee as jockey, he’s dominated his last six races. Though his pedigree hints otherwise, Lawyer Ron has proven to have the necessary stamina. He's on a similar path to Smarty Jones, the 2004 Derby champion.
Another contender, Steppenwolfer, has consistently trailed Lawyer Ron, placing third in a $50,000 optional claimer as a 2-year-old. Now settled at Churchill Downs, Steppenwolfer is well-positioned to thrive in a fast-paced race.
Unlike Lawyer Ron, Steppenwolfer hasn’t hit a triple-digit speed figure, but the highest speed rating belongs to Sinister Minister. He triumphed by eight lengths in a $62,500 maiden claimer at Santa Anita and outpaced competitors by over 12 lengths in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Sinister Minister, trained by Bob Baffert, will be ridden by Victor Espinoza?"who previously led War Emblem to a Derby victory. However, rivals such as Keyed Entry and Sharp Humor will push from the outset, challenging his lead.
Sweetnorthernsaint is another strong contender, having dominated the Illinois Derby by over nine lengths. This horse also shone in a $40,000 maiden claimer at Laurel and put on a resilient display at the Gotham Stakes.
Deputy Glitters, victorious in a $50,000 maiden claimer at Saratoga, struggled later in the Wood Memorial. Meanwhile, Bob and John, another Baffert-trained horse, claimed victory in muddy conditions, reminiscent of Fusaichi Pegasus’s success in 2000.
Point Determined, who won an $80,000 optional claimer, finished close behind Brother Derek in the Santa Anita Derby. Brother Derek, the Derby favorite, has already secured four stakes victories consecutively.
Here's my forecast for the Derby's outcome:
Sweetnorthernsaint and Brother Derek ran the quickest three furlongs in the major prep races, with Sweetnorthernsaint just edging out Brother Derek. Both excelled at the 1 1/8 miles distance, consistently recording triple-digit speed figures this year.
I favor Sweetnorthernsaint. His ability to accelerate from the final turn with jockey Kent Desormeaux could lead to victory. Brother Derek, ridden by Alex Solis, will adapt to any fast-paced scenarios, having bested notable West Coast horses.
For third, I pick Barbaro, the unbeaten Florida Derby winner. With a strategic five-week break, trainer Michael Matz has prepared him well.
In fourth, Lawyer Ron or Sinister Minister are strong choices, though the competition is fierce.
Ultimately, luck plays a big role in large fields. A clean, strategic race is essential for success at Churchill Downs. Let’s hope the most deserving horse wins.
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