Derby offers interesting take on Pace
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Derby Delivers Thrilling Insights on Race Favorites
As the 132nd Kentucky Derby approaches, excitement is building among gamblers, bookies, and fans eager to distinguish the contenders from the pretenders. Last year, Giacomo was underestimated, proving that perspective is everything.
Analyzing the Favorites
With strong opinions forming, fans are closely watching Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron, Barbaro, and Sweetnorthersaint. However, history reminds us that the favorite has only won twice since 1979, with Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 and Smarty Jones in 2004, adding an edge of unpredictability to this 20-horse race.
Brother Derek, owned by Cecil Peacock and trained by Dan Hendricks, is a formidable competitor. His dominating win at the Santa Anita Derby earned him leading graded stakes earnings of $1,114,980. The question remains: how will he race? He’s versatile, capable of leading as he did in the Santa Anita or holding back like during the Santa Catalina Stakes. If he attempts an early lead, he’ll likely face Sinister Minister, known for setting blistering fractions at the Blue Grass Stakes. However, Churchill Downs isn’t as speed-friendly, so this strategy might be risky.
Barbaro is another front-runner to watch. With impressive performances in the Florida Derby and Holy Bull Stakes, he’s shown consistent prowess. Despite trainer Michael Matz’s decision to give him a five-week rest, Barbaro remains a force, supported by Matz’s resilient journey from surviving a plane crash to a successful seven-year training career.
Lawyer Ron and Sweetnorthersaint are also favorites. Lawyer Ron boasts a perfect dirt track record and wins at the Southwest Stakes and Arkansas Derby. His speed is impressive but staying clear of kicked-up dirt remains a challenge. Sweetnorthersaint’s victory at the Illinois Derby, complimented by his stride, draws comparisons to War Emblem, the 2002 Derby champion.
The Longshot to Watch
Amid the favorites, A.P. Warrior stands as a worthy longshot. Although not securing a decisive win at the Santa Anita Derby, his history of triumphs against notable horses like Bob and John, and Point Determined, makes him intriguing. Known for racing off the pace, his victory at the San Felipe showcased his ability to rally strongly in the stretch.
Final Thoughts
While Derby analyses vary, keep in mind the post-time favorite has won just once since 1979. If Brother Derek can pace himself wisely, he might lead a thrilling race. Anticipate A.P. Warrior and Brother Derek, both from the West Coast, to make their presence felt at the wire of this year’s Kentucky Derby.
For more exciting races, visit WagerWeb.com Racebook to place your bets on the Triple Crown.
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