The Biggest Risk In Mineral Exploration Dilution

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The Biggest Risk in Mineral Exploration: Dilution


Summary


Equity issues are crucial for a corporation's growth but often lead to shareholder dilution. This is especially true in the junior mining sector, where ongoing exploration efforts result in repeated share issuance. Such dilution can undermine the investment potential, offering nominal returns at best, even if resources are discovered.

Keywords


dilution, mining, exploration, risk, arbitrage

Article


Equity issues are an essential part of a corporation's growth cycle, but they often cause dilution for existing shareholders. Excessive dilution can overturn a well-structured investment profile. Junior mining companies exemplify this issue, where exploration often triggers repeated share issuance, leaving shareholders with minimal returns, even if resources are found.

Dilution refers to the ratio of new shares issued compared to existing shares at any given time. In theory, this should be balanced by enhanced shareholder value along a clear timeline. However, proceeds are frequently spent on unproductive experiments and overheads, particularly among junior companies, misleadingly termed growth corporations.

Historically, exploration can yield significant profits for shareholders. The key is finding operations that balance new equity with fact-based exploration strategies. A European asset advisor emphasized the importance of working with managements ready to abandon a project if warranted, moving promptly to more promising opportunities.

It's rare for a mining junior to openly acknowledge a failed exploration program. Instead, they release technical press statements that often obscure realities. Given the low market cap of many juniors, new equity is typically placed at prices that significantly dilute existing shareholders.

To justify dilution in exploration, certain thresholds should guide the value pursuit. Investors should recognize that a sound exploration plan may suggest a potential resource, but profitability remains uncertain. Another crucial consideration is establishing a budget ceiling?"determining when to cut losses. Juniors must continuously manage risk without creating further dilution. Early-stage joint ventures might be beneficial to manage this risk.

Exploration should focus on regions with a proven history of substantial mineral reserves and high concentration levels. Investing in uncharted territories with investors' money is often risky, especially with safer options available.

Before investing in a mining junior, investors should understand one vital piece of information: the dilution ratio. Without this knowledge, it might be wiser to keep funds secure in a bank.

Note: Dilution ratios can be calculated from corporate filings. Contact the author for a calculation format at the email address provided.

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