An Analysis Of Lexmark

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An In-Depth Look at Lexmark


Overview


In 2005, Berkshire Hathaway acquired about a million shares of Lexmark. While I haven't followed this closely, I suspect it was Lou Simpson, not Warren Buffett, who made the purchase. My reasoning is twofold: the purchase was relatively small for Berkshire’s asset base, and it aligns with Simpson’s known investment style.

Market Perception


Berkshire's involvement always stirs interest, yet the commentary on Lexmark has been largely negative. Even many value investors are skeptical at the current prices. However, my perception of Lexmark is distinctly different from the general narrative I've observed.

Business vs. Consumer Segments


Criticism primarily targets Lexmark’s consumer products, though over 75% of its profits derive from the business sector, which is crucial to its success. Lexmark has carved out a niche by providing specialized printing solutions to industries like retail, banking, and pharmaceuticals. It’s the only major player that fully integrates its printing and software technologies, giving it a competitive edge.

Competitive Position


While HP and Dell are often seen as threats, it's Lexmark that holds the stronger competitive position. The company isn’t just about selling hardware; it’s focused on ink, which promises recurring revenue as consumer demand for quality home printing grows.

Challenges and Opportunities


Generic ink cartridges pose a threat to the industry, but Lexmark’s most profitable segments are well-protected. Concerns about Dell dropping Lexmark are also overstated. The Dell partnership doesn’t significantly enhance Lexmark's brand, which is set to grow independently over the next decade.

Management and Strategy


Lexmark’s management, led by CEO Paul Curlander with a PhD from MIT, is skilled in both business and printing technology. They recognize long-term opportunities despite short-term competition. Lexmark’s ability to generate substantial free cash flow, unlike its diversified competitors, means it can sustain through competitive pressures.

Financial Perspective


Quantitatively, Lexmark’s stock is trading at about 15 times earnings and 10 times cash flow, with a price-to-sales ratio of one?"a rarity for companies of this caliber. Over the past decade, the return on equity hasn't dropped below 20%, and asset returns have been consistently strong.

Although future ROE and cash flow might dip, long-term projections suggest sustainable ROE of 15-20% and free cash flow margins of 8-10%. At the current valuation, this translates to a strong yield if sales remain stable or grow.

Conclusion


While I don’t perform exact discounted cash flow analyses, my assessment shows that Lexmark’s potential revenue growth and robust free cash flow margins make it likely worth more than its current valuation. As Lexmark continues to build its brand and capitalize on printing needs, its long-term prospects appear promising.

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