Market Risk Not To Be Ignored or Overlooked

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Market Risk: A Critical Factor You Can't Overlook


Understanding Market Risk and How to Mitigate Financial Loss


Introduction


Fund managers, whether dealing with equities or bonds, know that returns are influenced by more than just asset selection. Numerous external factors can impact outcomes. But what challenges are faced by professional money managers?

The Gap in Market Risk Analysis


Genuine Trading Solutions, a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) based in Toronto, highlights that not all fund managers adequately analyze market risk. This often stems from a lack of education and understanding about solutions to offset risk efficiently.

Defining Market Risk


According to Dwayne Strocen, President of Genuine Trading Solutions, market risk involves unexpected financial losses due to uncontrollable events leading to market declines. Volatility in stock or bond markets, often spurred by global events, poses challenges even for top analysts and fund managers, who cannot predict these occurrences.

Historical Examples of Market Shocks


Some major unexpected events that affected the financial landscape include:

- 1982 Mexican Peso devaluation
- 1987 stock market crash (Black Monday)
- 1989 USA Savings and Loan Crisis
- 1998 Russian Ruble devaluation
- 1998 $125 billion collapse of Long Term Capital Management
- 2006 collapse of Amaranth, with losses of $5.85 billion

The Role of Value-At-Risk (VaR)


In 1994, J.P. Morgan introduced the Value-At-Risk (VaR) model to measure risk exposure with a certain confidence level, commonly 95% or 99%. However, VaR cannot predict the timing or magnitude of events. Significant declines or recessions can threaten unhedged companies, potentially leading to widespread economic consequences.

The State of Mutual and Hedge Funds


Many mutual funds remain unhedged due to previous legislation and a lack of understanding among investors. Conversely, hedge funds have more leeway, as their investors are typically more sophisticated and open to complex strategies, which hedge funds may keep private to prevent competition.

Risk Mitigation Solutions


Risk reduction requires professional expertise, often provided by Commodity Trading Advisors like Genuine Trading Solutions. According to Strocen, while many CTAs manage hedge funds, few specialize in risk management analytics, focusing instead on solutions to mitigate market and operational risk.

Implementing a Risk Strategy


The initial step is calculating the Value-At-Risk to determine a fund's liability. A risk mitigation strategy, or hedge, is then implemented. Identifying risk is only worthwhile if solutions to offset it are enacted. Hedging involves using derivatives, which can be exchange-traded or over-the-counter. Common instruments include index futures, interest rate futures, foreign exchange, commodities like crude oil, options, and swaps.

Conclusion


A detailed exploration of derivatives and hedging will follow in our next article. Now that we've outlined a straightforward approach to managing market risk, implementing the right strategy can begin with consulting a qualified Commodity Trading Advisor.

For more guidance, reach out to a registered CTA to protect your investments effectively.

You can find the original non-AI version of this article here: Market Risk Not To Be Ignored or Overlooked.

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