On Microsoft

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Evaluating Microsoft: Opportunities and Strategy


Introduction


Assessing Microsoft's future is challenging, yet the company shows significant growth potential, contingent on management's strategic direction. Microsoft's core businesses?"Windows, Office, and Servers?"are robustly established with a formidable competitive edge, particularly in Windows.

The Strength of Core Products


The operating system business model is lucrative, with regular upgrades driving continuous consumer engagement without the need for hardware advancements. The recent launch of Vista, despite expected initial criticism due to bugs and delays, could spur further cross-selling of Microsoft products.

Gaming Ventures


Microsoft's future in video games appears promising. While the console market's economics are challenging, game publishing and development are highly profitable. Although Microsoft missed opportunities to acquire established gaming companies cheaply, the console battles seem favorable. Launching early and securing excellent games are critical to console success. The Xbox 360 and Nintendo’s Wii are expected to perform well, potentially outshining Sony’s offerings.

Search and Innovation


Long-term, the search market holds promise for Microsoft, which may benefit from a shift in Google's perceived dominance. Integrating online and desktop search aligns with market trends. While Google's brand is strong, it may struggle outside keyword search, allowing Microsoft and emerging search engines a chance to capture market share.

Expanding Beyond PCs


Microsoft is strategically poised in mobile devices and television interfaces. The approach of controlling initial software contact points, venturing into content only when profitable, optimizes their market presence. While generic web-based applications may offer less profit, Microsoft's established products like Office and Windows provide a strong foundation for expansion into TVs, handheld devices, gaming consoles, and the web.

International and Long-term Growth


International growth for Microsoft’s key businesses is expected to be robust, requiring minimal additional investment. As hardware advancements slow, software innovation becomes increasingly critical. Microsoft’s future seems bright as computing power becomes abundant and marginal gains in hardware yield diminishing user advantages.

Management Excellence


Microsoft’s management ranks among the best, with visionary leadership from Bill Gates focusing on sustainable growth. The division between current operations and future investments ensures innovative progress.

Valuation Concerns


While Microsoft’s valuation raises some concerns, its potential for growth in search, gaming, and non-PC devices underscores its appeal?"especially for a major U.S. corporation. Despite attractive valuations of competitors like Intel and Dell, Microsoft appears more promising.

Conclusion


Although I don’t own MSFT shares and typically prefer smaller companies due to the greater potential for market mispricing, if I were to invest in a large-cap stock with over a $10 billion market cap, Microsoft would be my top choice. Its strategic direction and management excellence make it a compelling long-term investment.

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