Should we believe the experts Part I
Below is a MRR and PLR article in category Business -> subcategory Other.
Should We Trust the Experts? (Part I)
Word Count: 775
Why We Rely on Experts
Experts are consulted to forecast the future. Think of a patient questioning a doctor about a drug's future effects, an investor asking an analyst about stock movements, or a manager consulting HR about a candidate's potential. But should we trust these experts? History reveals that accurate predictions are rare. Even the brightest minds have often failed to foresee what’s coming. This series dives into examples from the arts (Part I), business (Part II), and science (Part III) to explore the reliability of expert opinions.
Trusting Experts in the Arts
D.W. Griffith is celebrated as one of the greatest filmmakers, having transformed movies into a powerful expressive medium. His work from the silent era, including "Birth of a Nation" (1915) and "Intolerance" (1919), set new filmmaking standards. Renowned figures like James Agee, Lillian Gish, and Charlie Chaplin praised his pioneering contributions. Griffith also showcased sharp business acumen by co-founding United Artists with other top performers of his time.
However, the late 1920s marked a decline for Griffith. His once sharp instincts began to falter. In a 1924 article for the Saturday Evening Post, he dismissed the idea of incorporating human voices in films, stating, "We do not want now and we shall never want the human voice with our films." Just three years later, "The Jazz Singer" (1927) debuted as the first talking movie, becoming a massive hit and sparking a cinematic revolution. Griffith's failure to predict this shift signaled a deep flaw in his intuition. As sound in film soared, his silent films faded, with his last work, "The Struggle" (1931), remaining in theaters only briefly. By his death in 1948, Griffith was largely forgotten by the industry he once revolutionized.
The Root of Misguided Predictions
What caused Griffith’s decline from intuitive genius to misguided thinker? A common reason experts fail in prediction is situational bias. People, including experts, often view future technologies as extensions of current ones. This bias intensifies when someone is deeply invested in existing technologies. Griffith, a silent movie master, struggled to imagine the potential of spoken dialogue, clinging to his silent film expertise.
Relevance to Qualitative Research
Situational bias is particularly prevalent in the manual interpretation of qualitative data. Analysts tend to search for familiar patterns, as Pat Bentley from Apple notes: "When analyzing responses manually, you look for repeats and things that sound important, often because they align with what you expect or seek."
Spotting Your Own Bias
To explore your own situational bias, visit [this link](http://www.computerintuition.com/Question1.htm) and follow the instructions.
By understanding and acknowledging the limitations of expertise, we can better navigate predictions and future possibilities.
You can find the original non-AI version of this article here: Should we believe the experts Part I .
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